China’s Rapid Military Growth Raises Questions About Combat Readiness
China’s military transformation under President Xi Jinping has been one of the most dramatic shifts in global defense strategy. Over the past decade, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has grown into the world’s largest navy, developed advanced hypersonic weapons, and constructed a vast network of missile bases. Yet, a new report from the Washington-based RAND Corporation suggests that despite its rapid expansion, China’s military may not be fully prepared for actual combat.
The report argues that China’s military modernization is driven more by political control than by war preparation. While Beijing has invested heavily in cutting-edge weapons and naval power, internal political constraints, corruption, and a lack of combat experience may significantly undermine its battlefield effectiveness.
Political Control vs. Combat Readiness
One of the most striking findings in the RAND report is that the PLA remains deeply intertwined with the Communist Party (CCP), prioritizing political indoctrination over battlefield efficiency. According to the report, up to 40% of the PLA’s training time is spent on political education rather than military exercises.
Additionally, the PLA’s command structure is highly politicized, with military leaders sharing authority with political commissars—officials responsible for enforcing loyalty to the CCP. This divided leadership system could create delays and inefficiencies in wartime decision-making, particularly in a high-intensity conflict against a well-trained adversary like the United States.
Key Weaknesses Identified in the Report:
- Excessive Political Influence: Military leadership is often chosen based on party loyalty rather than battlefield competence.
- Limited Combat Experience: The PLA has not fought a major war since 1979, leading to concerns about operational effectiveness.
- Corruption and Internal Struggles: A Pentagon report from December revealed that corruption crackdowns within the Chinese military have disrupted Xi Jinping’s defense strategy.
Despite these challenges, many experts argue that China’s military capabilities should not be underestimated.
Is China Preparing for War Over Taiwan?
The RAND report suggests that China is unlikely to engage in full-scale war over Taiwan, citing the lack of a major public mobilization effort. However, many military analysts disagree, arguing that Beijing is actively preparing for conflict if necessary.
- Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
- China has significantly expanded its naval and air power in preparation for potential conflict.
- U.S. war simulations show that defending Taiwan would be extremely difficult against China’s growing military force.
What Experts Say About China’s Military Strategy
Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, argues that China’s military buildup is not just for show. He points out that “there are much easier, cheaper ways to secure CCP control than developing world-class warfighting capabilities.”
Similarly, former U.S. intelligence officer John Culver warns that war isn’t China’s Plan A—but it is Plan B if Beijing deems it necessary.
China’s Growing Military Power: More Than Just Weapons?
While the RAND report questions the PLA’s combat effectiveness, it does not dispute China’s technological and military advancements.
- World’s Largest Navy: China now has more warships than the United States, although its ability to sustain naval warfare remains untested.
- Hypersonic Missile Arsenal: Beijing is leading the race in hypersonic weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology.
- AI and Cyber Warfare: China has invested heavily in artificial intelligence, space-based warfare, and cyber operations, which could redefine future conflicts.
However, one major challenge for China is recruiting and training qualified military personnel. Modern warships and missile systems require highly trained specialists, but China’s declining birth rate and reports of low morale among soldiers could impact long-term military readiness.
What Is China’s True Military Strategy?
Beyond War: Strategic Power Projection
Many experts believe China’s military ambitions are not about immediate war but long-term deterrence and influence.
- Economic Warfare Over Military Conflict: China may use economic coercion, cyber attacks, and diplomatic pressure to weaken Taiwan before resorting to military force.
- Expanding Global Influence: China’s military base in Djibouti and growing presence in the South China Sea suggest a desire for long-term strategic control rather than direct warfare.
- Gradual Taiwan Encirclement: Instead of launching a full-scale invasion, China could implement a naval blockade or limited military operations to isolate Taiwan while avoiding direct U.S. intervention.
Could a War Still Happen?
While China may not be actively seeking war, it is preparing for multiple scenarios. The U.S., Japan, and regional allies are enhancing their military presence in the Indo-Pacific, recognizing that tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate unexpectedly.
As China continues its military expansion, one thing remains clear: the PLA may not be fully combat-ready today, but it is evolving fast. Underestimating its capabilities could be a strategic miscalculation for the West.
Final Thoughts: Should the World Fear China’s Military Rise?
While the RAND report raises valid concerns about China’s internal political constraints, dismissing the PLA as unprepared for war would be a mistake. The sheer scale of China’s military expansion, advanced weapons programs, and strategic vision makes it a formidable force on the global stage.
Whether China will engage in war remains uncertain, but its rapid military transformation is undoubtedly reshaping global power dynamics.
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