Musk Effect: How X is Fueling AfD’s Surge in Germany’s 2025 Election

The ‘Musk Effect’ in German Politics

In the lead-up to Germany’s federal election on February 23, 2025, an unexpected digital force has shaped the political conversation: Elon Musk’s Twitter (X) engagement with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

A report by AlgorithmWatch and the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) of the Atlantic Council found that Musk’s direct engagement with AfD figures—particularly party leader Alice Weidel—caused an explosion in visibility for the party on X.

Although there is no concrete evidence of algorithmic manipulation, Musk’s personal amplification of AfD content has played a significant role in making the party the most visible political force on German Twitter.

How the AfD’s Engagement Skyrocketed

The numbers are staggering.

Before Musk’s engagement, AfD-related posts on X were receiving an average of 17,000 weekly impressions.

After Musk’s engagement, that number jumped to 145,000—an eightfold increase.

Alice Weidel, AfD’s co-leader, benefited the most, with 13 of the 50 most-viewed posts by German politicians in 2024.

Notably, this spike in engagement happened despite the AfD posting fewer tweets than usual, suggesting that Musk’s direct interaction was the primary driver of this surge.

Weidel vs. Merz: A Digital Landslide

While the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, remains Germany’s leading party in polls, its digital presence is nowhere near as dominant as Weidel’s.

Weidel’s top tweet in 2024 had 24 million views.

Merz’s most popular tweet? Just 2.2 million.

This suggests that AfD’s online reach is far exceeding traditional mainstream parties, even if that doesn’t necessarily translate into real-world votes.

Musk’s Role in Globalizing AfD’s Message

One of the most unexpected trends in this report is the sharp increase in English-language engagement with AfD content.

Before Musk’s involvement: 80% of AfD retweets came from German-language accounts; only 8% were in English.

After Musk’s engagement: English-language engagement jumped to 40%, while German engagement fell below 20%.

This shift suggests that AfD is no longer just a German movement—it is tapping into international far-right networks, particularly among U.S.-based MAGA supporters.

This also aligns with Musk’s broader political alliances, as he has frequently interacted with Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, and right-wing influencers.

Censorship? Anti-AfD Content Quietly Suppressed

The report also raises questions about platform neutrality. While pro-AfD content thrived, certain high-profile anti-Musk posts were mysteriously hidden from German users.

One example was a viral projection by the German activist group Zentrum für Politische Schönheit, which displayed Musk’s face alongside the words “Heil Tesla”—mocking his authoritarian tendencies.

This image was blocked from German users, despite no official moderation policy being cited.

However, other, lower-visibility anti-Musk posts remained available.

This suggests that X’s moderation policies may not be as neutral as Musk claims, particularly regarding content critical of himself.

Will the AfD’s Digital Rise Translate Into Election Wins?

While Twitter (X) engagement is not the same as real-world electoral success, the AfD’s digital dominance is shaping perceptions of the election.

The AfD is currently polling at 21%, placing it in second place behind the CDU but ahead of the governing SPD (Social Democrats).

The AfD’s growth is part of a broader far-right resurgence in Europe, as seen in France, Italy, and the Netherlands.

It remains unclear how much impact Musk’s indirect endorsement will have at the ballot box, but what is certain is that social media—particularly X—has become a major battleground for political influence.