
An Alternative for Germany supporter carrying a "Germany First" sign on October 8, during a rally in Berlin. CHRISTIAN MANG / REUTERS
A Waning Faith in the Establishment
Back when Angela Merkel steered Germany through an era of unprecedented prosperity and global respect, the nation’s political landscape was defined by stability and measured governance. Merkel’s tenure symbolized a golden age—a time when career politicians were trusted to secure Germany’s future through careful, consensus-driven policies. Today, however, that legacy is being questioned. As the country approaches the 2025 federal elections, a growing number of voters are casting aside old loyalties. Disillusioned by decades of political intransigence and economic missteps, many Germans now demand a fresh start—a sweeping overhaul that breaks away from the tired models of the past and challenges the establishment’s hold on power.
Traditional parties like the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are now struggling to retain their once-loyal base. For the first time since World War II, these powerhouses are projected to secure less than half the national vote—a stark indication that many Germans are ready for a change.
A Fragmented Political Landscape and the Rise of Populism
Recent polling reveals that the SPD, the incumbent ruling party, is languishing at an all-time low of 16 percent—a post-war nadir that underscores the electorate’s dissatisfaction with established political elites. The CDU, despite its long-standing dominance over German politics, is similarly weakened, polling at around 30 percent—just a shadow of its former glory. This fragmentation has created a vacuum that smaller and more populist parties are eager to fill. Notably, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to capture roughly 20 percent of the vote, as many voters are drawn to its promise of realigning German politics and prioritizing national interests over bureaucratic inertia.
The Economics of Discontent: A Failing Status Quo
Beyond the political establishment’s inability to adapt, German voters are also responding to the tangible economic challenges that have plagued the country in recent years. Underinvestment in critical infrastructure such as railways and bridges, stagnant job growth, and an economy predicted to contract by 0.5 percent in 2025 have all fueled public frustration. A survey indicating that 70 percent of Germans worry about the cost of living further highlights the disconnect between the promises of career politicians and the everyday realities of the electorate.
Retired diplomat Christian Schlaga sums it up: voters are increasingly saying that they demand a government that delivers concrete results. “People are saying it’s kind of the last chance for liberal democratic parties. If they fail, like the last government, then people will say this is a basis to elect the AfD,” he observed. This sentiment reflects a broader European trend where the established political class is viewed as out of touch and ineffective in addressing modern challenges.
Immigration on the Ballot: A Symptom of the System
While immigration remains a hot-button issue—exacerbated by a string of recent violent incidents—the political debate around it is increasingly seen as symptomatic of a deeper problem: the failure of career politicians to respond to the public’s evolving priorities. With controversial proposals emerging from both sides of the aisle, such as calls for stronger border controls by CDU leader Friedrich Merz and the AfD’s aggressive stance on deportation, the electorate’s frustration is now being channeled into a rejection of the old guard.
For many voters, the immigration debate is no longer about ideology alone; it is a rallying cry against a political system that has failed to produce results. The CDU and SPD’s inability to address these challenges effectively has left a vacuum that the AfD and other smaller parties are quick to exploit.
The Decline of Career Politicians and the Promise of Change
The once-unassailable duo of the CDU and SPD dominated German politics in the 1960s and 1970s, consistently capturing up to 90 percent of the vote. However, as the political landscape has diversified over the decades—with the rise of the Greens, The Left, and the AfD—the electorate has grown increasingly skeptical of politicians who spend their careers in power without delivering transformative change.
Economist Jens Bastian from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs bluntly states, “If the CDU scores below 30 percent, it’s a defeat for the party. For the SPD, it’s a success if you get close to 20 percent.” Such figures reveal not only the electoral decline of career politicians but also the growing appetite among voters for fresh faces and new ideas that break from the traditional mold.
Looking Ahead: A Political Overhaul on the Horizon
Germany’s parliamentary system means that no single party is likely to command an outright majority, making coalition negotiations inevitable. Chancellor-presumptive Merz has hinted at the possibility of working with various political forces, reflecting a broader desire among voters to see a government that is not bogged down by the compromises and inefficiencies of long-standing political alliances.
The coming election is poised to be a turning point for German politics. With mainstream parties struggling to justify their decades-long tenure and deliver tangible results, the electorate’s growing discontent with career politicians could pave the way for a sweeping political realignment. This shift is not just about immigration or economic policy—it’s about a fundamental change in how politics is conducted in Europe, with voters demanding accountability, innovation, and a break from the status quo.